Crude oil is only part of the story, a Strait of Hormuz disruption and refinery closures are squeezing kerosene supply across Ireland and the UK.
By MyOil Newsroom ·
Summary
Crude oil is only part of the story, a Strait of Hormuz disruption and refinery closures are squeezing kerosene supply across Ireland and the UK.
When global oil prices make headlines, most households assume their heating oil bill will track crude prices fairly closely. The reality in spring 2026 is far more complicated, and more painful. Heating oil is kerosene-based, as is jet fuel, meaning its price is driven by global aviation fuel markets rather than the crude oil price alone. That distinction matters enormously right now.
Crude oil prices have risen sharply in recent days; however, the main market driver of heating oil in the UK and Ireland is the wholesale price of jet fuel, which is traded on the European market. And that jet fuel market has been rocked by events far beyond European shores.
In 2025, at least 40% of Europe's jet fuel imports came from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz, which is, at time of writing, effectively closed. The consequences for kerosene, which shares the same stage of the refining process as jet fuel, have been swift and severe. The wholesale price of jet fuel has more than doubled, representing a three-and-a-half-year peak.
Analysts have commented that European refiners will find it difficult to offset this loss completely and that, in addition, shipping freight rates are increasing, making imports from other regions more expensive. In short, there is no easy alternative pipeline of supply ready to step in.
The supply squeeze is not just about the Middle East. Two UK refineries closed during 2025, reducing the region's ability to produce refined fuels such as heating oil and jet fuel. At the same time, China has limited refined fuel exports due to domestic supply concerns, while Indian refineries are facing tighter crude supply, further reducing global export availability. Together, these pressures have created a perfect storm for European kerosene markets.
While refined fuel prices have surged, crude oil prices have increased more gradually. This explains why many households have been shocked to find heating oil costs rising much faster than the headline crude price would suggest.
The effects have shown up sharply in domestic prices. According to price monitoring from Oilprices.ie, the average price of 500 litres of kerosene in Ireland rose from €494.79 a week earlier to €793.50 nationally, with Dublin averaging €806.68 on 6 March 2026.
What began as a crude shock has become a middle-distillate supply crisis, where kerosene sits at the most exposed point. For distributors, according to Fuel Oil News, the challenge is navigating extraordinary wholesale volatility while keeping deliveries flowing to customers who depend on heating oil as their only source of home heat.
The key takeaway for householders in Ireland and the UK is that heating oil prices can move sharply and quickly, and the trigger is often not the crude price you see on the news, but tighter dynamics in the kerosene and jet fuel market. Geopolitical events, refinery closures, and shifting trade routes can all combine to push your next fill price well above what recent history would suggest.
If your tank is running low, it is worth acting rather than waiting in hope of a near-term price fall, supply conditions remain uncertain. Use our free run-out calculator to check how long your current stock will last, and set a price-drop alert so you'll be the first to know if the market eases.
Sources
We write our own take and link the original reporting. Figures are as reported by the sources above.
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